Context
Nigeria's Power Value Chain
The Nigerian electricity sector divides into three layers, each with its own ownership and regulatory regime. One of them is the binding constraint on everything else.
Mixed
Generation
Gencos, IPPs, State-licensed operators
~16,000 MW installed
Federal
Transmission
TCN (federal monopoly) + NISO
~5,800 MW transmitted peak
Mixed
Distribution
11 DisCos (Ikeja, Eko, etc.) + state operators
Persistent load rejection
The pattern is consistent across the chain. Generation has been privatized since 2013, with installed capacity near 16,000 MW. Only about 5,800 MW is actually transmitted at peak[…]. Transmission is the federal monopoly: TCN owns the grid, and despite $7.5 billion in development finance over eleven years, wheeled capacity has barely moved[…]. Distribution is mixed, with eleven privatized Distribution Company (DisCo)s plus emerging state-licensed distributors under the 2023 Act. DisCos chronically reject power they cannot absorb[…].
The gap between 16,000 MW installed and 5,800 MW delivered is not a generation problem. It is a transmission problem, and transmission is the one layer JCM cannot influence.
The bottleneck dictates the entry strategy
Any deal that puts JCM electrons on the federal grid recreates the exact risk profile that killed Enron and stalled Katsina: dependence on infrastructure JCM does not control. The strategy is to route around the bottleneck, not through it. The next slide shows how.