Opening
The Same Hand, Twenty-Four Years Apart
Bola Ahmed Tinubu lost this fight as Governor of Lagos in 1999. He won it as President of Nigeria in 2023[…]. A strengthening amendment followed in February 2024[…].
Governor of Lagos State
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Outcome
Signs $500M Enron IPP deal. Federal government voids the agreement. Lagos remains on the federal grid.
24
years
President of Nigeria
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Outcome
Signs Electricity Act 2023 ten days into his term. States receive constitutional authority to license generation and distribution.
The same individual lost the fight at the state level and won it at the federal level. The 2023 reform is not a regulatory accident or a passing legislative whim. It is the resolution of a 24-year political project, championed by the sitting President, whose home state is the natural place to test what the reform makes possible.
What this means for JCM
Reversal risk on the Electricity Act through the current presidential term is materially lower than for typical regulatory reform, because the reform is a personal political legacy of the sitting President. Federal-state friction in Lagos is structurally suppressed for the same reason. The political tailwind is durable, not contingent on a single election cycle.