Execution
The recommendation, in one paragraph
JCM Power should enter Nigeria through Lagos State with a 50 MW utility-scale solar plus battery storage anchor plant, plus a portfolio of 5 to 20 MW C&I installations, sold to commercial and industrial customers under direct USD-indexed PPAs licensed by LASERC, capitalized through a blended DFI debt and equity stack, and operated by a Nigerian-led team under Canadian governance. Total project cost of roughly $200M. Target return to owners of 14 to 16% over a 20-year hold. Five-year capacity target of 400 MW.
What approval triggers
Three decisions before the next phase commits capital.
Now. Approve the strategy as outlined and authorize co-investor selection, country head recruitment, and LASERC pre-application engagement.
Month 6. Approve the selected co-investor and signed term sheet; commit equity capital subject to senior debt close.
Month 14. Approve financial close, EPC contractor, and construction commencement.
What the board can expect
Quarterly progress reports against the four-phase implementation plan. Annual project review against base-case financials. Five-year strategic review on platform expansion to Edo, Kaduna, and other state markets that have followed Lagos in operationalizing the 2023 Electricity Act[…]. JCM should treat this as a platform decision, not a single asset. Lagos is the entry point. The capability built here transfers.
The strategic case in one line
JCM has already operated a Sub-Saharan utility-scale solar plus storage business. JCM has already attempted Nigeria. The Lagos bypass strategy is the application of what worked in Malawi to a market that has just made the structural reform JCM needed in 2014.
The full bibliography, methodology, and detailed financial assumptions are in the Appendix.