Context
Nigeria: The Opportunity at a Glance
Nigeria is the largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa and home to one of the largest unmet electricity markets in the world. The strategy targets one state.
The entry point
Lagos State, Nigeria
Nigeria: 220M+ people across 36 states. The strategy is one state, in the southwest.
220M+
Population
Median age 18. Sub-Saharan Africa's largest.
61.2%
Electricity access
Rural areas at 32.9%. World average 87.5%.
23M+
Lagos State population
Roughly equal to Canada's eight largest cities combined.
$22B
Spent on generator fuel annually
Nigeria-wide. The cost of the gap.
The Lagos gap
Federal grid
11% of Lagos electricity
1,000 MW
Diesel & petrol generators
89% of Lagos electricity, at ~₦130/kWh (~$0.10/kWh)
15,000 MW
JCM enters at 5 to 7% of the addressable pool. Modest in market-share terms. Consistent with what JCM has built in Malawi over a comparable timeline.
The numbers come from the Lagos State Ministry of Energy, World Bank tracking, and Sustainable Energy for All's 2024 generator inventory[…][…]. Nigeria nationally spent an estimated ₦16 trillion on petrol and diesel for self-generation in 2023[…].
The competitor is diesel, not the grid
The federal grid serves 11% of Lagos. The other 89% is already privately purchased, mostly from a diesel and petrol generator fleet that nobody owns at scale. The competition for the entering generator is the gen-set, not the Generation Company (GenCo). JCM targets the industrial tier of that fleet: large Mikano and Mantrac units running at ~₦130/kWh (~$0.10/kWh). A solar-plus-storage Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) at ₦80 to ₦100/kWh (~$0.06 to $0.07/kWh) is unambiguously cheaper. A five-year capture of ~400 MW is 5 to 7% of that addressable pool, consistent with JCM's Malawi pace.
The macro constraint that shapes the deal structure is naira depreciation: the currency lost roughly 70% of its USD value between 2022 and 2024 before partially stabilizing in 2025-2026 at ~₦1,358/USD[…]. Inflation sits at 15%. Every line of the capital stack and PPA structure has to absorb this. The PESTLE and Strategy sections do that work.